Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf

The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is...

23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook

The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But...

19th June 2025 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict

Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in...

19th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

MENA PMIs: a soft year ahead for Gulf non-oil sectors

May’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf point to a softer Q2 for non-oil sectors and the backdrop of lower oil prices will likely result in less fiscal support and weaker confidence that add to the...

4th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

US and China try to shift the fracturing map

The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America...

16th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US

President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations...

15th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a...

15th May 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East

Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran...

13th May 2025 · 14 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf

OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth...

8th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The direct impact of Trump’s trade war on the region is likely to be...

16th April 2025 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Oil needs to fall a long way before Gulf’s pegs are at risk

Oil prices have now fallen well below the level needed to balance current accounts across much of the Gulf, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of the region’s dollar pegs. And, indeed...

9th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

MENA PMIs: a soft end to Q1

March’s batch of PMIs across much of the Middle East and North Africa came in softer as worries about a global trade war weighed on activity. Those concerns will have only mounted in the wake of...

7th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf

President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years...

4th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal...

27th March 2025 · 20 mins read