Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty The rapid escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now pulled in the US, has – for the time being at least – displaced trade, tariffs and fiscal vulnerabilities at the top of a... 23rd June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Without a plan in a complex, fracturing system – takeaways from the latest US-China twist Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the best. It was in effect last week as the US and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London. Both sides indicated progress... 16th June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Capital controls as a fix for US deficits – no longer unthinkable, still costly It’s big, but it’s far from beautiful. In fact, the sheer size of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that’s currently working its way through Congress is part of what makes it so unwieldy – and so... 9th June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Key questions from Europe clients We have just returned from three days of client meetings in Europe where the biggest topics of interest were US tariffs, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, risks to public finances (including in France) and... 22nd May 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trade truce, or just a pause? The fragile state of US-China relations After weeks of turbulence, a US-China agreement to slash tariffs has suddenly fuelled hopes that the worst of President Trump’s trade war is behind us. That’s certainly been the interpretation in... 19th May 2025 Chief Economist's Note The future of Europe The shift in sentiment toward Europe has been striking. Just a day after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Ursula von der Leyen took the stage in Davos to declare, “Europe is back”. At a time of widespread... 12th May 2025 Chief Economist's Note Dollar dominance will persist in a world without alternatives Exactly a century ago today, Winston Churchill announced the return of sterling to the gold standard at its pre-war value of $4.86 per pound. It was a controversial, and ultimately unsuccessful... 28th April 2025 Chief Economist's Note The US, China and the Fractured Age Nobody knows where US tariff policy will ultimately land but one thing is starting to become clear: the Trump administration has China in its sights. The exemptions for various electronic goods... 14th April 2025 Chief Economist's Note The economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos The tariff storm is far from over. President Trump and some of his key officials used the weekend to dig in their heels on his ‘Liberation day’ tariffs, and European and Asian markets have fallen... 7th April 2025 Chief Economist's Note The only certainty about “Liberation Day”? Everyone loses when tariffs rise The President is calling it “Liberation Day”, but nobody knows exactly what the White House will come up with when the long-awaited reciprocal tariffs plan is finally unveiled on 2nd April – including... 31st March 2025 Chief Economist's Note The path to solving global imbalances doesn’t run through Mar-a-Lago How to fix the global economy? I explained last week why global trade imbalances matter and outlined a framework for thinking about a ‘grand bargain’ to reform the global trade system. The core... 24th March 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trump is right to fixate on the trade deficit – just not for the reason he thinks The US president’s approach to trade policy may be – putting it charitably – inconsistent, but Donald Trump has at least been consistent in how he views the US balance of payments. As far back as the... 17th March 2025 Chief Economist's Note Two cheers for Germany’s fiscal reform The agreement by Germany’s likely next coalition partners to reform the country’s strict fiscal rules is both historic and positive: historic because it reflects a shift in attitudes within Europe’s... 10th March 2025 Chief Economist's Note A major global slowdown? Parsing signals from the big three On top of tariff threats and geopolitical ruptures, investors are having to grapple with notable signs of weakness in the recent economic data. With that said, while the outlook has clearly soured, we... 3rd March 2025 Chief Economist's Note A geoeconomic realignment – or is it? Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine... 24th February 2025 Chief Economist's Note Lessons from a week of Trump trade policy turmoil Less than a month into the new Trump administration and already it feels as though enough has been written about trade, tariffs and US foreign relations to last four years. With events moving quickly... 10th February 2025 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty The rapid escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now pulled in the US, has – for the time being at least – displaced trade, tariffs and fiscal vulnerabilities at the top of a... 23rd June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Without a plan in a complex, fracturing system – takeaways from the latest US-China twist Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the best. It was in effect last week as the US and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London. Both sides indicated progress... 16th June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Capital controls as a fix for US deficits – no longer unthinkable, still costly It’s big, but it’s far from beautiful. In fact, the sheer size of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that’s currently working its way through Congress is part of what makes it so unwieldy – and so... 9th June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Key questions from Europe clients We have just returned from three days of client meetings in Europe where the biggest topics of interest were US tariffs, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, risks to public finances (including in France) and... 22nd May 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trade truce, or just a pause? The fragile state of US-China relations After weeks of turbulence, a US-China agreement to slash tariffs has suddenly fuelled hopes that the worst of President Trump’s trade war is behind us. That’s certainly been the interpretation in... 19th May 2025
Chief Economist's Note The future of Europe The shift in sentiment toward Europe has been striking. Just a day after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Ursula von der Leyen took the stage in Davos to declare, “Europe is back”. At a time of widespread... 12th May 2025
Chief Economist's Note Dollar dominance will persist in a world without alternatives Exactly a century ago today, Winston Churchill announced the return of sterling to the gold standard at its pre-war value of $4.86 per pound. It was a controversial, and ultimately unsuccessful... 28th April 2025
Chief Economist's Note The US, China and the Fractured Age Nobody knows where US tariff policy will ultimately land but one thing is starting to become clear: the Trump administration has China in its sights. The exemptions for various electronic goods... 14th April 2025
Chief Economist's Note The economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos The tariff storm is far from over. President Trump and some of his key officials used the weekend to dig in their heels on his ‘Liberation day’ tariffs, and European and Asian markets have fallen... 7th April 2025
Chief Economist's Note The only certainty about “Liberation Day”? Everyone loses when tariffs rise The President is calling it “Liberation Day”, but nobody knows exactly what the White House will come up with when the long-awaited reciprocal tariffs plan is finally unveiled on 2nd April – including... 31st March 2025
Chief Economist's Note The path to solving global imbalances doesn’t run through Mar-a-Lago How to fix the global economy? I explained last week why global trade imbalances matter and outlined a framework for thinking about a ‘grand bargain’ to reform the global trade system. The core... 24th March 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trump is right to fixate on the trade deficit – just not for the reason he thinks The US president’s approach to trade policy may be – putting it charitably – inconsistent, but Donald Trump has at least been consistent in how he views the US balance of payments. As far back as the... 17th March 2025
Chief Economist's Note Two cheers for Germany’s fiscal reform The agreement by Germany’s likely next coalition partners to reform the country’s strict fiscal rules is both historic and positive: historic because it reflects a shift in attitudes within Europe’s... 10th March 2025
Chief Economist's Note A major global slowdown? Parsing signals from the big three On top of tariff threats and geopolitical ruptures, investors are having to grapple with notable signs of weakness in the recent economic data. With that said, while the outlook has clearly soured, we... 3rd March 2025
Chief Economist's Note A geoeconomic realignment – or is it? Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine... 24th February 2025
Chief Economist's Note Lessons from a week of Trump trade policy turmoil Less than a month into the new Trump administration and already it feels as though enough has been written about trade, tariffs and US foreign relations to last four years. With events moving quickly... 10th February 2025
